What Would Heating Your Home Cost With a Heat Pump?
US oil-heated households’ average winter heating cost is projected up 31.3% for winter 2026–27. See what the same heat would cost with a heat pump — starting from state-published fuel prices and your utility’s published residential rate, then editing anything you know better. Oil, propane, natural gas, kerosene, electric resistance, pellets, or cord wood — if your current setup is an aging traditional system, this compares keeping that path against replacing it with a modern cold-climate heat pump.
Sources: NEADA Winter Heating Report (Sep 14, 2026) · NH DOE statewide oil average $5.28/gal (Sep 3, 2026)
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Your side-by-side comparison appears here — using your numbers, not a brochure’s.
Published by Custom Climates. Compare using cited public data, visible assumptions, and your own inputs — not guaranteed savings.
Heating-price context and sources
| Figure | Value | Source & date |
|---|---|---|
| Projected US average winter cost, oil-heated households | $2,297 — up 31.3% from $1,749 last winter | NEADA Winter Heating Report, Sep 14, 2026 (national household average) |
| Heating oil, NH statewide average | $5.28/gallon | NH DOE, Sep 3, 2026 |
| Northeast electricity-heated households, projected winter heating cost | +12.5% this winter (projected) | NEADA, Sep 2026 |
| Northeast gas-heated households, projected winter heating cost | −1.0% (flat to down) (projected) | NEADA, Sep 2026 |
For context: NEADA projects the lowest-income US households will spend 9.86% of income on home energy this winter (Sep 2026).
Each figure carries its own source and date. Projections are NEADA's, not ours; per-unit prices are NH DOE statewide sample averages and can differ from your local price. Source excerpts for every figure on this page (NEADA report figures, NH DOE fuel prices, NH PUC utility rates, EIA series links, HEAR program status) are retained with retrieval dates in the publisher's records and available on request.
How this calculator works
How costs are calculated. We compare fuel and electricity costs per million Btu of useful heat delivered. For fuels, we divide price by energy content and heating efficiency. For heat pumps, we use electricity price and an assumed seasonal coefficient of performance (COP). Annual comparisons supply the same estimated heating load, derived from the existing system's fuel use and assumed efficiency.
Methodology details: DOE/EIA worksheet relation, editability, defaults
Limitations, stated plainly: the annual table compares space-heating energy cost only (domestic hot water, if heated by the same fuel, is excluded from usage — see the usage note above) If you answer the replacement question, the equipment-plus-energy purchase comparison is the primary result; energy-only figures below it are supporting context. A retained backup system is a separate allocation decision out of scope here. Rates change — the stamps tell you which numbers are current.
How heating costs compare at these prices and assumptions
| Fuel | $ per MMBtu delivered | vs. heat pump ($30.38) |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | $15.75 | Gas is cheaper |
| Wood pellets | $28.84 | Pellets slightly cheaper |
| Heat pump (Eversource, COP 2.5) | $30.38 | Heating-only baseline; cooling costs excluded |
| Cord wood | $44.06 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Heating oil | $47.65 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Kerosene | $54.35 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Propane | $55.02 | Heat pump cheaper |
| Electric resistance | $75.96 | Heat pump cheaper |
Statewide example at NH's September 2026 defaults (Eversource 25.918¢/kWh, COP 2.5, NH DOE fuel prices, Sep 3, 2026) — not your customized result. Run your own numbers above — including gas or pellets — every outcome is shown as calculated. How heat pumps pair with existing systems (dual-fuel) — secondary reading for later.
Beyond per-unit energy cost, the sourced considerations that matter: heat pumps can also provide cooling — coverage depends on system design; income-eligible households may qualify for the HEAR rebate below; and NHSaves lists current utility efficiency programs separately.
NH HEAR rebate: up to $8,000 for heat pumps — not open yet
Status as of September 21, 2026: NOT OPEN — anticipated Fall 2026
New Hampshire's Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates (HEAR) program is not yet accepting applications. Up to $8,000 for an eligible space-heating/cooling heat pump, subject to income limits (households ≤150% of Area Median Income; 50% cost cap at 80–150% AMI, up to 100% below 80% AMI) and final program rules.
Official NH DOE HEAR page · For updates: email IRARebates@energy.nh.gov with "Subscribe" in the subject line.
⚠ Timing matters — read before starting any project
Projects initiated before launch are NOT eligible for HEAR rebates — the program is not retroactive. If you're counting on it, program initiation timing matters.
Custom Climates is not a pre-approved HEAR contractor and an estimate does not reserve funding.
Ask about rebate timing — free estimateIs this calculator a quote for a heat pump?
No. It's a heating-cost comparison, not a quote: annual space-heating energy, plus — if you answer the replacement question — a 10-year equipment-plus-energy purchase comparison using your own planning estimates. For actual pricing on your home, request a free estimate.
Why does the calculator show natural gas or pellets cheaper than a heat pump?
Because at New Hampshire's September 2026 published prices, they are. Natural gas runs about $15.75 per MMBtu of delivered heat and pellets about $28.84, versus roughly $30.38 for a heat pump at Eversource's rate with a COP of 2.5. A comparison tool that only showed favorable cases wouldn't be a comparison tool.
What is COP and why is 2.5 the default?
COP measures heat delivered per unit of electricity used. This calculator uses a default planning assumption of seasonal COP 2.5, consistent with NH DOE's 2026 comparison table — not a model-specific rating or performance guarantee. Actual seasonal performance depends on equipment, design, weather, and operation. Dual-fuel backup is not modeled.
Do heat pumps actually heat New Hampshire homes in winter?
Yes — with the right equipment. Specific Mitsubishi H2i cold-climate models are engineered for severe-cold operation (per Mitsubishi's published specifications for those models). “Operating at” a temperature and “holding full capacity” at it are different things, which is why a proper load calculation for your home matters.
Can I get the $8,000 HEAR rebate now?
No — the program was not open as of September 21, 2026, and launch is anticipated in Fall 2026. Rebates apply only to projects initiated after launch; it is not retroactive. Eligibility is income-limited (≤150% of Area Median Income) with cost-share caps, and final rules aren't published yet.
If you're replacing anyway — or weighing whether to
If your heating system needs replacement, compare two equipment paths — not a new heat pump against spending nothing. The relevant upfront difference is between the net installed quotes for a suitable like-for-like replacement and a heat-pump system, including any required backup and electrical work. Answering the replacement question makes the equipment-plus-energy purchase comparison the primary result; the energy figures support it. Actual installed quotes and payback require a home assessment.
If your current system can keep operating, replacing it now is a different financial decision that must account for the new investment and the alternative of continued use and later replacement. Request a side-by-side estimate showing scope, applicable incentives, backup strategy, and projected operating costs under stated assumptions. Any payback estimate should use your actual quotes — not generic equipment prices.
The other math: what doing nothing costs
Three distinct 10-year paths, named explicitly (illustrative 800-gallon oil home at NH's September 2026 average price, COP 2.5, inputs held constant — not a forecast, not total ownership cost): (1) Keep the existing system: about $42,000 in heating energy, no new equipment — the energy subtotal of doing nothing (a system that fails mid-decade would change this). (2) Replace with a new traditional same-fuel system ($14,000 equipment, 85% efficiency): about $54,000 (equipment + fuel). (3) Install a heat-pump system (~$30,000 equipment): about $57,000 (equipment + electricity) before any rebate. In this constant-price example, before rebates, the heat-pump path's subtotal is about $3,178 higher than the traditional-replacement path — and about $15,000 higher than simply keeping the existing system running, because the new system's purchase price dominates. With the owner's default planning escalation (4%/yr fuel, 3%/yr electricity), the same three 10-year paths total approximately $50,714 to keep the existing system running, $61,731 to replace it with a new traditional same-fuel system, and $60,875 to install a heat-pump system, before any rebate. Under these escalation assumptions, the heat-pump path is about $855 less than the traditional-replacement path, but about $10,162 more than keeping the existing system running. Doing nothing remains the lowest modeled subtotal in this example, provided the existing system operates for the full ten years; repairs and later replacement are not included. Escalation changes which replacement path costs less, not whether either replacement costs less than continued use. A heat pump can also add cooling where the old system had none. Different assumptions — prices, usage, quotes, efficiencies, or price escalation — or an applicable rebate can change the result; the calculator above computes yours. Any modeled heating-energy savings must be weighed against equipment, installation, maintenance, and any financing costs using actual quotes. Depending on system design and what you retire, a heat pump can also add cooling and reduce fuel handling.
Financing is real and it changes the math: qualifying Mitsubishi ductless and MXZ multi-zone systems installed by Custom Climates are eligible for 0% APR for 48 months through Synchrony Bank — on the $30,000 planning figure above, that's about $625/month for four years with no interest (subject to credit approval; your actual quote may differ). Energy cost is one part of the decision. A free estimate covers equipment options, heating and cooling coverage, backup needs, and financing — assessed separately from these modeled energy costs.
Financing: No Interest for 48 Months* — a true 0% promotion with 48 equal monthly payments (not deferred interest) — on Mitsubishi heating and cooling purchases made with your Synchrony Project Card between 8/1/2026 – 10/31/2026. The $30,000 planning example above would be 48 payments of $625/month. Other promotional periods may be offered — see our financing options page or ask at your free estimate. Actual installed pricing is provided at your free in-home estimate — the figures on this page are your own editable planning allowances. The 10-year figures above are illustrative: your numbers depend on usage, prices, and the system you choose.
* No interest will be charged, and equal monthly payments are required on promo purchase until it is paid in full. The payments equal the initial total promo purchase amount divided by the number of months in the promo period, rounded up to the next whole dollar. These payments may be higher than the payments that would be required if this purchase was a non-promo purchase. During the last month(s) of the promo period the required monthly payment may be reduced due to the prior months’ rounding. Regular account terms apply to non-promo purchases. New Accounts as of 8/29/25: Purchase APR 26.99%. Min Interest Charge $2. One-time Account Activation Fee of $29 charged at time first purchase posts to account. Existing cardholders: See your credit card agreement terms. Subject to credit approval.
No Interest for 48 Months* on Mitsubishi Heating and Cooling purchases made with your Synchrony Project Card between 8/1/2026 - 10/31/2026. $29 account activation fee may apply. Equal monthly payments required for 48 months.
Get a real number for your home
As a Mitsubishi Electric Diamond Elite™ dealer, Custom Climates installs and services cold-climate heat pumps across southern New Hampshire. A free in-home estimate is the next step: coverage, backup needs, and an installed price for your home — free, with no obligation to purchase.
